Caen 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Caen's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade Michel d'Ornano this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Le Havre have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Caen 2.00 PPG, Le Havre 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Caen, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 54% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 44% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.91 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.161 / defence 0.866 | Le Havre attack 0.958 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.071. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Caen games / 70 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 34% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 33%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Le Havre 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Le Havre's lower xG of 0.89 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 60% | Le Havre 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 34% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Caen 0.91 / Le Havre 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.161 / def 0.866 | Le Havre attack 0.958 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Caen (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Le Havre xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Le Havre kick off?
Caen vs Le Havre kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Le Havre?
Caen 1 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Caen vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Le Havre part of?
Caen vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 34% chance of winning, Le Havre a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Caen and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Caen and Le Havre in?
Caen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Caen's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Caen xG
Total xG
1.80
0.89
Le Havre xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.6 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Caen and 0.89 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Caen come into this having played 70 games, going 27W 21D 22L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.64 PPG from 70 outings (30W 25D 15L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.46 PPG, Le Havre on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Caen's home form reads 19W 8D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Caen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.66 points per game from 35 outings (15W 13D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.13 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 27W 21D 22L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 30W 25D 15L in their last 70 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Le Havre away?
Caen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.86 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Caen or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Le Havre in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Caen's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Caen
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Caen 1-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 51%, Le Havre 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Caen) and 31% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Le Havre in 49%; Le Havre in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Caen's recent matches and 40% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Caen's recent games and 31% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Le Havre tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Caen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Caen 1-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.91 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Le Havre attack 0.96 / defence 0.62, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 34% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 33%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 44%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.46 PPG, Le Havre 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.