VPS 0-0 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as VPS take on Honka.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Honka travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 3W 2D 5L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Honka have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Honka's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VPS, 2 for Honka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–4 with Honka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VPS in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Honka in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 55% versus Honka 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 68% | Honka 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.81 xG and Honka 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.770 / defence 0.926 | Honka attack 0.956 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 0.946. VPS's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 VPS games / 26 Honka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VPS 28% | Draw 43% | Honka 30%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.57 | Draw 2.33 | Honka 3.33. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — VPS's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | Honka 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 28% | Draw 43% | Honka 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG VPS 0.81 / Honka 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.770 / def 0.926 | Honka attack 0.956 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.181 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Honka xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Honka kick off?
VPS vs Honka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Honka?
VPS 0 - 0 Honka.
Where is VPS vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Honka part of?
VPS vs Honka is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 28% chance of winning, Honka a 30% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both VPS and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Honka?
Record (2 meetings): VPS 0W | Draws 0 | Honka 2W.
What form are VPS and Honka in?
VPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Honka (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Honka's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Honka's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
43%
2.35
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
VPS xG
Total xG
1.64
0.84
Honka xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.35
43%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for VPS and 0.84 for Honka, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 5D 13L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Honka sit at 1.77 PPG from 31 outings (16W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.42 PPG, Honka on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VPS's home form reads 3W 3D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Honka have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Honka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 2.00 scored and 1.10 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Honka in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Honka in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Honka have gone 16W 7D 8L in their last 31 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Honka away?
Honka's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.86 PPG; Honka away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Honka won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Honka specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
VPS
1
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Honka?
From 7 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, Honka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when VPS 1-0 Honka.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Honka see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 50%, Honka 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (VPS) and 50% (Honka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Honka in 36%; VPS have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Honka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 57% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VPS's matches and 50% of Honka's.
Do VPS and Honka tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Honka in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as VPS and Honka drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.81 xG and Honka 0.84 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VPS fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Honka landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against Honka attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 28% | Draw 43% | Honka 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 68%, Honka 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Honka's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.42 PPG, Honka 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.