Leyton Orient 0-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leyton Orient vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leyton Orient host Stockport County at Brisbane Road in League Two, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Leyton Orient — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Leyton Orient's home record at Brisbane Road: 6W 4D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brisbane Road.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Leyton Orient) versus 2.00 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leyton Orient have won 1, Stockport County 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Leyton Orient winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leyton Orient in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 34% versus Stockport County 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leyton Orient 27% | Stockport County 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.08 xG and Stockport County 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 1.068 / defence 0.755 | Stockport County attack 1.068 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.070. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 90 Leyton Orient games / 44 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 39% | Draw 34% | Stockport County 27%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Stockport County 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leyton Orient are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 40% | Stockport County 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Brisbane Road • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 39% | Draw 34% | Stockport County 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Leyton Orient 1.08 / Stockport County 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 1.068 / def 0.755 | Stockport County attack 1.068 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Stockport County xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Stockport County kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Brisbane Road.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Leyton Orient 0 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Brisbane Road.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County part of?
Leyton Orient vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 39% chance of winning, Stockport County a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Leyton Orient and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Leyton Orient 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 0W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Stockport County in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (1.07) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
39%
2.58
34%
2.96
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
1.94
0.86
Stockport County xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.86 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Leyton Orient have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 26W 12D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 21W 12D 11L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leyton Orient on 2.05 PPG, Stockport County on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leyton Orient have posted 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (15W 6D 1L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.39 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Stockport County in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 26W 12D 6L in their last 44 games (2.05 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Stockport County away?
Leyton Orient's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 2.32 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Stockport County in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leyton Orient and Stockport County runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Leyton Orient
4
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 2, Stockport County have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 27%, Stockport County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Leyton Orient) and 46% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Stockport County in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 50% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 46% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Leyton Orient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Leyton Orient 0-3 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.08 xG and Stockport County 0.86 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Leyton Orient fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.07 / defence 0.76 against Stockport County attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 39% | Draw 34% | Stockport County 27%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 27%, Stockport County 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 2.05 PPG, Stockport County 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.