Panetolikos 2-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Panetolikos 0W, Levadiakos 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 50% versus Levadiakos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 40% | Levadiakos 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.38 xG and Levadiakos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.778 / defence 1.078 | Levadiakos attack 0.682 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 48% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 16%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | Levadiakos 6.25. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 48% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Panetolikos 1.38 / Levadiakos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.778 / def 1.078 | Levadiakos attack 0.682 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Levadiakos xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Panetolikos 2 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 48% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 16% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.68x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
48%
2.06
35%
2.84
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.11
0.73
Levadiakos xG
2.06
48%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.73 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 7W 8D 15L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 15L across 30 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.77 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 3W 4D 8L from 15 games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 1W 4D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.63 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 4W 11D 15L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.87 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Panetolikos 1-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Panetolikos) and 33% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Panetolikos) and 47% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 53% of games; Levadiakos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 33% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Panetolikos's recent games and 47% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 5, as Panetolikos and Levadiakos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.38 xG and Levadiakos 0.73 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Levadiakos attack 0.68 / defence 1.42, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 48% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 16%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 40%, Levadiakos 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.97 PPG, Levadiakos 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.