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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 11 March 2023

Wed 8 Thu 9 Fri 10 Sat 11 Sun 12 Mon 13 Tue 14

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 11 March 2023. Parma vs Sudtirol sits top on 75% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 75% down to 66%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

League Two supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 75%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Italy 75%

✓ Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 65%

Serie A · Italy 72%

✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 64%

Championship · England 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 63%

League One · England 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 65%

League Two · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 60%

League Two · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 60%

Serie B · Italy 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

#10

League Two · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#11

Ligue 2 · France 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%

#12

La Liga · Spain 68%

Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#13

Ligue 2 · France 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#14

League One · England 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%

#15

League Two · England 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 62%

#16

Serie B · Italy 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#17

League Two · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#18

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#19

Championship · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#20

Serie A · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 11 March 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Parma vs Sudtirol at 75% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.