Empoli 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Udinese — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.10 PPG, Udinese 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 1 for Udinese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 59% and Udinese 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Udinese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.05 xG and Udinese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.916 / defence 1.092 | Udinese attack 0.832 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.124. Data: 63 Empoli games / 63 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 30% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Udinese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 40% | Udinese 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 30% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Empoli 1.05 / Udinese 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.916 / def 1.092 | Udinese attack 0.832 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Udinese xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Udinese kick off?
Empoli vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Empoli 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Empoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Udinese part of?
Empoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 36% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Empoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Empoli and Udinese in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.92x the league average against Udinese's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.31
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.07
1.02
Udinese xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Empoli and 1.02 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 16W 21D 26L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 18W 25D 20L from 63 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.10 PPG, Udinese on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 11D 12L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.49 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 16W 21D 26L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 25D 20L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.06 PPG; Udinese away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
4
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 68%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Empoli) and 55% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Empoli's games and 55% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Empoli's matches and 55% of Udinese's.
Do Empoli and Udinese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Udinese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.05 xG and Udinese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Udinese attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 36% | Draw 30% | Udinese 34%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 46%, Udinese 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.10 PPG, Udinese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.