PAU 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Niort (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for PAU, 1.00 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Niort winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Niort 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 41% | Niort 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.05 xG and Niort 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.738 / defence 1.096 | Niort attack 0.814 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.039. PAU's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 PAU games / 64 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 36% | Draw 34% | Niort 30%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Niort 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 36% | Draw 34% | Niort 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG PAU 1.05 / Niort 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.738 / def 1.096 | Niort attack 0.814 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: PAU (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Niort xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Niort kick off?
PAU vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Niort?
PAU 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is PAU vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Niort part of?
PAU vs Niort is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 36% chance of winning, Niort a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAU and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Niort?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Niort 2W.
What form are PAU and Niort in?
PAU (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Niort (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PAU's attack rating (0.74) and Niort's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.81x) against PAU's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.93
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
PAU xG
Total xG
1.98
0.93
Niort xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for PAU and 0.93 for Niort, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 16D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (18W 15D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for PAU against 1.08 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 13W 7D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (7W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Niort in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 16D 28L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Niort have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Niort away?
PAU's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.48 PPG; Niort away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Niort won 3-0 on 21 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Niort have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when PAU 1-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 39%, Niort 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 48% (Niort).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 32% of games; Niort in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAU's recent matches and 39% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 48% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Niort tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Niort in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.05 xG and Niort 0.93 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Niort landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Niort attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 36% | Draw 34% | Niort 30%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 41%, Niort 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.19 PPG, Niort 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.