Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 1 May 2022
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 1 May 2022. Estac Troyes vs Lille sits top on 76% in the Ligue 1. The shortlist runs from 76% down to 58%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans six different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Ligue 1 · France
76%
Serie A · Italy
74%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
70%
Ligue 1 · France
70%
Super League 1 · Greece
69%
La Liga · Spain
68%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
67%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
67%
Super League 1 · Greece
66%
Serie A · Brazil
65%
Ligue 1 · France
64%
Serie A · Italy
63%
Serie A · Italy
63%
La Liga · Spain
62%
Canadian Premier League · Canada
62%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
62%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
62%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
61%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
61%
Ligue 1 · France
58%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Predictions by country
UK Football Predictions
Spanish Football Predictions
Italian Football Predictions
German Football Predictions
French Football Predictions
Dutch Football Predictions
Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 1 May 2022?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Estac Troyes vs Lille at 76% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.