Estac Troyes 3-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Estac Troyes welcome Lille to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.60 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 1 for Lille and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 53% versus Lille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 35% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.78 xG and Lille 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.651 / defence 0.933 | Lille attack 0.807 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.211. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Estac Troyes games / 34 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Lille 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 40% | Lille 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Estac Troyes 0.78 / Lille 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.651 / def 0.933 | Lille attack 0.807 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Lille (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lille xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lille kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Estac Troyes 3 - 0 Lille.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 29% chance of winning, Lille a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.65) and Lille's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
29%
3.43
34%
2.91
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.69
0.91
Lille xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.08
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 16.8 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.91 for Lille, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 9D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (13W 12D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.24 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Lille have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.12 PPG; Lille away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Lille runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Lille have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 53%, Lille 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Lille).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Estac Troyes's games and 65% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 47% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Lille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lille in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Lille 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.78 xG and Lille 0.91 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lille landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.65 / defence 0.93 against Lille attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 35%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.