AS Roma 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Bologna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bologna in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 53% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.36 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.038 / defence 0.928 | Bologna attack 0.666 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.320. Data: 34 AS Roma games / 34 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 49% | Draw 29% | Bologna 22%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 4.55. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 49% | Draw 29% | Bologna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG AS Roma 1.36 / Bologna 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.038 / def 0.928 | Bologna attack 0.666 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 49% chance of winning, Bologna a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.04) and Bologna's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.44
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.17
0.82
Bologna xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.82 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 34 games, going 17W 7D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.15 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 games (1.71 PPG), while Bologna have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Bologna away: 0.88 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bologna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bologna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AS Roma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Bologna finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.36 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Bologna attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 49% | Draw 29% | Bologna 22%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 53%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.