Juventus 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Venezia travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventus at Allianz Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Juventus carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventus, 0 for Venezia and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 52% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 30% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.19 xG and Venezia 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.878 / defence 0.805 | Venezia attack 0.556 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.310. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Juventus games / 33 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 50% | Draw 33% | Venezia 18%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Venezia 5.56. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Venezia's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 50% | Draw 33% | Venezia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Juventus 1.19 / Venezia 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.878 / def 0.805 | Venezia attack 0.556 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Juventus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Venezia xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Venezia kick off?
Juventus vs Venezia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Venezia?
Juventus 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Juventus vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Venezia part of?
Juventus vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 50% chance of winning, Venezia a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Juventus and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Juventus and Venezia in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventus's attack rating (0.88) and Venezia's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
50%
2.01
33%
3.07
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Juventus xG
Total xG
1.77
0.59
Venezia xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.1 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Juventus and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Juventus and 0.59 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 33 games, going 19W 8D 6L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.67 PPG from 33 outings (5W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.82 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Venezia in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 19W 8D 6L in their last 33 games (1.97 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 7D 21L in their last 33 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Venezia away?
Juventus's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.94 PPG; Venezia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Juventus or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Venezia in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juventus
2
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventus have won 2, Venezia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Venezia 2-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Venezia?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 38%, Venezia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Juventus and 44% for Venezia.
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Venezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Juventus's recent matches and 44% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Juventus's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Venezia tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Venezia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Venezia 2-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.19 xG and Venezia 0.59 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against Venezia attack 0.56 / defence 1.22, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 50% | Draw 33% | Venezia 18%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 30%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.