Slavia Praha 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Plzen travel to Sinobo Stadium to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Sinobo Stadium, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.20 PPG, Plzen 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 39% versus Plzen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 55% | Plzen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.22 xG and Plzen 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.260 / defence 0.673 | Plzen attack 0.943 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Slavia Praha games / 30 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 48% | Draw 31% | Plzen 21%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Plzen 4.76. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Plzen's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 0% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 48% | Draw 31% | Plzen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Slavia Praha 1.22 / Plzen 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.260 / def 0.673 | Plzen attack 0.943 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Plzen xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 48% chance of winning, Plzen a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.26x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.24
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
1.90
0.69
Plzen xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.69 for Plzen, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 23W 4D 4L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 23W 6D 2L from 31 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slavia Praha on 2.35 PPG, Plzen on 2.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.80 PPG from 15 outings (14W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.35 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 9W 4D 2L from 15 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.81 scored and 0.65 conceded. Slavia Praha's scoring rate against Plzen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Plzen in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 23W 4D 4L in their last 31 games (2.35 PPG), while Plzen have gone 23W 6D 2L in their last 31 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.80 PPG; Plzen away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Plzen in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Slavia Praha 20% BTTS, Plzen 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slavia Praha) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Plzen in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 40% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Plzen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sinobo Stadium, Championship Round - 2, as Slavia Praha and Plzen drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.22 xG and Plzen 0.69 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.26 / defence 0.67 against Plzen attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 48% | Draw 31% | Plzen 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Plzen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 2.35 PPG, Plzen 2.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.