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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 18 December 2021

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 18 December 2021. The strongest reading belongs to Real Sociedad vs Villarreal at 86% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 86% down to 61%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

Serie B supplies four of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Spain 86%

Under 2.5 86% BTTS No 77% Real Sociedad Clean Sheet 56%

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 67%

Championship · England 73%

Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 63%

Championship · England 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 63%

Serie B · Italy 72%

Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Serie B · Italy 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 63%

Championship · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 64%

Serie B · Italy 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%

Serie B · Italy 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#10

Primeira Liga · Portugal 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 57%

#11

Championship · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#12

Eredivisie · Netherlands 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 60%

#13

2. Bundesliga · Germany 63%

Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#14

Super League · China 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 54%

#15

League Two · England 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#16

League One · England 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#17

2. Bundesliga · Germany 61%

#18

La Liga · Spain 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#19

League Two · England 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#20

Süper Lig · Turkey 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 53%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 18 December 2021?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Real Sociedad vs Villarreal at 86% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.