Salford City 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Peninsula Stadium plays host to Salford City versus Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stevenage have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage away from home this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Salford City's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 50% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 40% | Stevenage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.57 xG and Stevenage 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.908 / defence 0.897 | Stevenage attack 0.632 / defence 1.604. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.179. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.604 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Salford City games / 20 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 30% | Stevenage 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Salford City 1.57 / Stevenage 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.908 / def 0.897 | Stevenage attack 0.632 / def 1.604 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Salford City (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Stevenage xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Stevenage kick off?
Salford City vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Stevenage?
Salford City 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Salford City vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Stevenage part of?
Salford City vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 57% chance of winning, Stevenage a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Salford City and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Stevenage in?
Salford City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.91x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.63x) against Salford City's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
57%
1.76
30%
3.37
13%
7.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.24
0.67
Stevenage xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
7.48
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
36.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Salford City and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Salford City and 0.67 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Stevenage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salford City come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 6D 8L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Salford City against 0.95 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Salford City's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Salford City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Salford City are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.80 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Stevenage away?
Salford City's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.67 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Salford City or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stevenage in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Salford City
0
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Stevenage 1-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Stevenage?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salford City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Salford City) and 33% (Stevenage) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Salford City) and 67% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Stevenage in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Salford City's recent matches and 33% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Salford City's recent games and 67% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Stevenage tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Stevenage 1-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.57 xG and Stevenage 0.67 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Stevenage attack 0.63 / defence 1.60, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 40%, Stevenage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.20 PPG, Stevenage 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.