PEC Zwolle 1-3 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 2D 5L this season (8 games, 0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Twente's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Twente have posted 4W 1D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Twente are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 38% versus Twente 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 31% | Twente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.80 xG and Twente 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.503 / defence 0.979 | Twente attack 0.979 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.359. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.503 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Twente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 PEC Zwolle games / 16 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 23% | Draw 29% | Twente 48%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Twente 2.08. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 25% | Twente 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 23% | Draw 29% | Twente 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.80 / Twente 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.503 / def 0.979 | Twente attack 0.979 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Twente (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Twente xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Twente kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Twente kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 3 Twente.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Twente part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Twente is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 23% chance of winning, Twente a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Twente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Twente in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Twente (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.50x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Twente's attack (0.98x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
23%
4.39
29%
3.47
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.10
1.30
Twente xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.30 for Twente, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 16 games, going 1W 3D 12L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Twente sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 1W 2D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Twente have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Twente in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 12L in their last 16 games (0.38 PPG), while Twente have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.62 PPG; Twente away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Twente?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Twente have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Twente 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 25%, Twente 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (PEC Zwolle) and 62% (Twente).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Twente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 75% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 62% of Twente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Twente tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Twente in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Twente cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.80 xG and Twente 1.30 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Twente outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.50 / defence 0.98 against Twente attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 23% | Draw 29% | Twente 48%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 31%, Twente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Twente's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.