FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Dresden at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 host Dynamo Dresden at Audi-Sportpark in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04 at Audi-Sportpark this season: 0W 3D 5L from 8 home games — 0.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Dynamo Dresden have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Dynamo Dresden have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dynamo Dresden — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1 for Dynamo Dresden and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Dynamo Dresden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dynamo Dresden in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 53% versus Dynamo Dresden 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 65% | Dynamo Dresden 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.95 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.616 / defence 1.413 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.674 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.267. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 17 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Dynamo Dresden 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Dresden are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Ingolstadt 04 62% | Dynamo Dresden 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.95 / Dynamo Dresden 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.616 / def 1.413 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.674 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Dynamo Dresden xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden?
FC Ingolstadt 04 3 - 0 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 26% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Dresden 1W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Ingolstadt 04's attack at 0.62x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Dresden's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
26%
3.82
35%
2.89
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.16
1.21
Dynamo Dresden xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.0 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.21 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.41 PPG on a 1W 4D 12L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden's form line: 7W 1D 9L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo Dresden are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L).
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo Dresden's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 4D 12L in their last 17 games (0.41 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 1D 9L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
Dynamo Dresden's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.38 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 18 December 2021, when FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 62%, Dynamo Dresden 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 75% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 38% of games; Dynamo Dresden in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 50% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 75% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Ingolstadt 04 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dynamo Dresden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Dynamo Dresden 3-0 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.95 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.21 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dynamo Dresden landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.62 / defence 1.41 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 39%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Ingolstadt 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 65%, Dynamo Dresden 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Dresden arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.41. Form was overturned, with FC Ingolstadt 04 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.