Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zorya Luhansk face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho to take on Zorya Luhansk in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zorya Luhansk at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zorya Luhansk at 1.30 PPG versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — a Zorya Luhansk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 56% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 52% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.85 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / defence 0.887 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.776 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.181. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zorya Luhansk's projected output up. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 51 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 22.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 1.61 | Draw 4.52 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.27. The model has a clear lean to Zorya Luhansk (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 50% (last 10 home games) | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.85 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / def 0.887 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.776 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 62% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.15) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 51 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.52
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.66
0.81
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
39.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.81 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 8D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (7W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.39 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across their last 11 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 11 away games (4W 1D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.45 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Zorya Luhansk have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Zorya Luhansk
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 3, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 46%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Zorya Luhansk) and 54% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 27% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 27% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 64% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.85 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zorya Luhansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.39 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.