Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Karpaty travel to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karpaty — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Karpaty have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.30 PPG, Karpaty 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Karpaty 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Karpaty trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% versus Karpaty 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54% | Karpaty 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Karpaty 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.066 / defence 1.049 | Karpaty attack 1.085 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.135. Data: 23 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 53 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 40%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Karpaty 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karpaty as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Karpaty 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 / Karpaty 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.066 / def 1.049 | Karpaty attack 1.085 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Karpaty xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 0 Karpaty.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 32% chance of winning, Karpaty a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W | Draws 0 | Karpaty 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.42
1.29
Karpaty xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.29 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 7W 3D 14L from 24 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 8L across 24 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00 PPG, Karpaty on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 3W 1D 7L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 3D 14L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.91 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karpaty in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
0
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Karpaty have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 46%, Karpaty 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 36% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Karpaty in 54%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 27% of games; Karpaty in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 27% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 36% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Karpaty 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Karpaty landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 40%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Karpaty 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Karpaty 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.