SK Poltava 0-4 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as SK Poltava welcome Polessya to Zirka Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Zirka Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Polessya — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SK Poltava, 1 for Polessya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Polessya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Poltava trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Polessya trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 54% versus Polessya 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 68% | Polessya 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.75 xG and Polessya 2.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.805 / defence 1.771 | Polessya attack 1.349 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.212. Polessya's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — the away xG of 2.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 SK Poltava games / 52 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 7% | Draw 12% | Polessya 81%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 14.29 | Draw 8.33 | Polessya 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 50% | Polessya 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 7% | Draw 12% | Polessya 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 50% | xG SK Poltava 0.75 / Polessya 2.90 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.805 / def 1.771 | Polessya attack 1.349 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Polessya (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
2.90
Polessya xG
50%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs Polessya kick off?
SK Poltava vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Polessya?
SK Poltava 0 - 4 Polessya.
Where is SK Poltava vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Polessya part of?
SK Poltava vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 7% chance of winning, Polessya a 81% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SK Poltava and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): SK Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Polessya 1W.
What form are SK Poltava and Polessya in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Poltava's attack rating (0.81) and Polessya's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus SK Poltava's defence, projects 2.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
7%
14.79
12%
8.22
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
3.64
2.90
Polessya xG
14.79
7%
Home win
8.22
12%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
6%
18.12
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for SK Poltava and 2.90 for Polessya, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Polessya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Poltava come into this having played 22 games, going 2W 4D 16L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SK Poltava's home form reads 0W 2D 8L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Polessya have taken 2.40 points per game from 10 outings (8W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.95 PPG overall record — Polessya travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Poltava are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.55 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.68 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya in 27%.
Defensively: Polessya in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and Polessya in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 4D 16L in their last 22 games (0.45 PPG), while Polessya have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.20 PPG; Polessya away: 2.40 PPG.
Have SK Poltava or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Polessya in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
0
Draws
2
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Polessya?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, Polessya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SK Poltava 0-4 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 50%, Polessya 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SK Poltava and 50% for Polessya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Polessya in 60%; SK Poltava have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 30% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SK Poltava's matches and 50% of Polessya's.
Do SK Poltava and Polessya tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Polessya in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.75 xG and Polessya 2.90 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 2.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.81 / defence 1.77 against Polessya attack 1.35 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 7% | Draw 12% | Polessya 81%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 68%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.