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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.

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Match Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.

Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 2.70 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 10% rate and Shakhtar Donetsk's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shakhtar Donetsk, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for LNZ Cherkasy.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 4–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 37% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.022 / defence 0.864 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.133 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.167. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 LNZ Cherkasy games / 51 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 10% | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% BTTS from recent games.

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