Veres Rivne 2-5 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ruh Lviv's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 49% versus Ruh Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 44% | Ruh Lviv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.08 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.949 / defence 0.991 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.084 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.165. Data: 39 Veres Rivne games / 39 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 31% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 39%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Ruh Lviv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 50% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 31% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Veres Rivne 1.08 / Ruh Lviv 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.949 / def 0.991 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.084 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ruh Lviv xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Veres Rivne 2 - 5 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 31% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 3 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.95) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.30
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.33
1.25
Ruh Lviv xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.25 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 10D 21L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (11W 15D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 0.87 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Veres Rivne's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 8W 10D 21L in their last 39 games (0.87 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 11W 15D 13L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.11 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
4
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
From 10 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 56%, Ruh Lviv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Veres Rivne) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games; Ruh Lviv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 44% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Veres Rivne 2-5 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.08 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.25 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 31% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 39%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 44%, Ruh Lviv 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 0.87 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.