Vorskla Poltava 0-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Polessya to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.90 (Polessya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Polessya in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 70% versus Polessya 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 70% | Polessya 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Polessya 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.067 / defence 1.085 | Polessya attack 0.902 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.212. Data: 39 Vorskla Poltava games / 10 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Polessya 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.11 / Polessya 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.067 / def 1.085 | Polessya attack 0.902 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Polessya (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Polessya xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 3 Polessya.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance of winning, Polessya a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Polessya (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.27
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.30
1.19
Polessya xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.19 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 1D 4L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.60 PPG, Polessya on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Polessya have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Polessya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.50 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Polessya have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Polessya away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.80 PPG; Polessya away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Polessya in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
4
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, Polessya have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Polessya tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 80%, Polessya 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Vorskla Poltava and 60% for Polessya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Polessya in 40%; Polessya in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Polessya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 40% of Polessya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 60% of Polessya's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Polessya tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Polessya in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Vorskla Poltava 0-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Polessya 1.19 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Polessya attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 70%, Polessya 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Polessya's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.60 PPG, Polessya 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.