Chornomorets 3-0 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chornomorets at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Minai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Chornomorets welcome Minai to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Minai — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Chornomorets have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 1 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Minai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Minai trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Minai 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 50% | Minai 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Minai 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.027 / defence 0.781 | Minai attack 0.758 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.190. Chornomorets's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Chornomorets games / 40 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 46% | Draw 33% | Minai 21%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Minai 4.76. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Minai 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 46% | Draw 33% | Minai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Chornomorets 1.17 / Minai 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.027 / def 0.781 | Minai attack 0.758 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Minai xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Minai kick off?
Chornomorets vs Minai kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Minai?
Chornomorets 3 - 0 Minai.
Where is Chornomorets vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Minai part of?
Chornomorets vs Minai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 46% chance of winning, Minai a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Chornomorets and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | Minai 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Minai's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
46%
2.19
33%
2.99
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.87
0.70
Minai xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.70 for Minai, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 14W 9D 17L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 19L across 40 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.27 PPG, Minai on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.70 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Minai have gone 8W 13D 19L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Minai away?
Minai's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.05 PPG; Minai away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Minai specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Minai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Minai 2-0 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Minai see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 37%, Minai 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Chornomorets and 26% for Minai.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 42% of games; Minai in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 47% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Chornomorets's recent games and 26% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Minai tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Minai in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chornomorets run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Minai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Minai 3-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Minai 0.70 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.03 / defence 0.78 against Minai attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 46% | Draw 33% | Minai 21%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 50%, Minai 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Minai's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.27 PPG, Minai 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.