Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shakhtar Donetsk, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Ruh Lviv — Ruh Lviv have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 4–0 Ruh Lviv — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The head-to-head data gives Shakhtar Donetsk an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 44% versus Ruh Lviv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 54% | Ruh Lviv 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.526 / defence 0.720 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.628 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.207. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.526 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. Shakhtar Donetsk have a tight defence (rating 0.720), which is pulling Ruh Lviv's projected output down. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50 games and Ruh Lviv's last 51.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 23% | Ruh Lviv 11%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.51 | Draw 4.43 | Ruh Lviv 8.92. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.55 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 23% | Ruh Lviv 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 / Ruh Lviv 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.526 / def 0.720 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.628 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Ruh Lviv xG
35%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 66% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.53x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.63x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50 games and Ruh Lviv's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.43
11%
8.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.27
0.55
Ruh Lviv xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
8.92
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
2%
50.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.55 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 32W 13D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 14W 12D 24L from 50 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.44 PPG from their last 25 home games (19W 4D 2L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 6D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.84 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 32W 13D 5L in their last 50 games (2.18 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.44 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won Ruh Lviv 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
3
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Ruh Lviv 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 16% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 32%; Ruh Lviv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 28% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 16% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 60% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Ruh Lviv 3-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.55 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.53 / defence 0.72 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.63 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 23% | Ruh Lviv 11%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.