Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka host FC Kharkiv at Kolos Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kolos Stadium, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kolos Kovalivka at 1.60 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, FC Kharkiv 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 48% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 30% | FC Kharkiv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.822 / defence 0.921 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.988 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.204. Data: 51 Kolos Kovalivka games / 20 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 27% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 42%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kolos Kovalivka 50% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 27% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 / FC Kharkiv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.822 / def 0.921 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.988 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Kharkiv xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 27% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
Record (7 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 3W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 2W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
27%
3.71
31%
3.20
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.91
1.09
FC Kharkiv xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.09 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 9D 5L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (11W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.57 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 4W 5D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.17 scored and 0.61 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 9W 9D 5L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 8D 4L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.55 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when Kolos Kovalivka won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kolos Kovalivka
3
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 54%, FC Kharkiv 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Kolos Kovalivka and 36% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 36%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Kharkiv in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 46% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 36% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.09 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.8 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 27% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 42%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 30%, FC Kharkiv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.57 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.