Oleksandria 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oleksandria face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host FC Kharkiv at CSC Nika in Premier League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oleksandria's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.30 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Oleksandria 0–0 FC Kharkiv — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 61% versus FC Kharkiv 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | FC Kharkiv 39%). Note also that FC Kharkiv surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Oleksandria recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.19 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.046 / defence 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.834 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.273. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 31 games and FC Kharkiv's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.52 | Draw 3.46 | FC Kharkiv 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Oleksandria 31 games, FC Kharkiv 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Oleksandria 1.19 / FC Kharkiv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.046 / def 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.834 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 31 games and FC Kharkiv's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.46
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.02 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 11W 14D 6L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 14D 11L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 15 home games (6W 6D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 9D 4L from their last 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.77 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Oleksandria (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 11W 14D 6L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 14D 11L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won FC Kharkiv 0-3 Oleksandria.
Oleksandria's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 60%, FC Kharkiv 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Oleksandria) and 27% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 47%; FC Kharkiv in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Oleksandria's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 47% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.19 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, FC Kharkiv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.