Shakhtar Donetsk 6-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lviv encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk and Lviv meet at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 December 2021 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 7W 0D 1L from their last 8 home games — 2.62 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 away fixtures (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lviv's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Lviv and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2021, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 Lviv — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 44% versus Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Lviv 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.86 xG and Lviv 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.655 / defence 0.951 | Lviv attack 0.699 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.182. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.655 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lviv's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 16 games and Lviv's last 16.

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 63% | Draw 22% | Lviv 15%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59 | Draw 4.57 | Lviv 6.59. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 62% (last 8 home games) | Lviv 43% (last 7 away games).

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