Veres Rivne 0-3 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Veres Rivne welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 4W 3D 0L from 7 Premier League appearances (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.14 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 7 home games (86%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 7W 1D 0L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 1 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 19% | Dynamo Kyiv 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 31% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 0.96 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.858 / defence 0.763 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.479 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.185. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Veres Rivne's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Veres Rivne games / 16 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 27% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 45%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.22. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 14% | Dynamo Kyiv 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 27% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Veres Rivne 0.96 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.858 / def 0.763 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.479 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dynamo Kyiv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Veres Rivne 0 - 3 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 27% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
27%
3.71
28%
3.61
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.30
1.34
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.34 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 4D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.56 PPG from 16 outings (13W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Veres Rivne's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.71 points per game from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.69 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Veres Rivne's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 13W 2D 1L in their last 16 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 2.14 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.71 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
9
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 10 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 14%, Dynamo Kyiv 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Veres Rivne and 43% for Dynamo Kyiv.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 43%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 57% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 43% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Veres Rivne 0-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 0.96 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.34 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.48 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 27% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 45%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 31%, Dynamo Kyiv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.