FC Mariupol 0-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Mariupol vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka plays host to FC Mariupol versus Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Mariupol's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 7L across 7 games at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this season.
Lviv (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Lviv have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Lviv arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Mariupol 0W, Lviv 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Mariupol half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Mariupol 67% and Lviv 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 73% | Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.15 xG and Lviv 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.918 / defence 1.712 | Lviv attack 0.708 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.250. Data: 15 FC Mariupol games / 15 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 28% | Lviv 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Lviv 2.22. Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lviv as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Mariupol 71% | Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 28% | Lviv 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Mariupol 1.15 / Lviv 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.918 / def 1.712 | Lviv attack 0.708 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Lviv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Lviv xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Lviv kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Lviv?
FC Mariupol 0 - 1 Lviv.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Lviv part of?
FC Mariupol vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 28% chance of winning, Lviv a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Mariupol and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Lviv in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Mariupol's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.71x) against FC Mariupol's defence (1.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.67
1.51
Lviv xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.34
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.51 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Mariupol's recent record stands at 2W 1D 12L from 15 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 8L across 15 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lviv by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Mariupol have managed 0W 0D 6L from 6 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.47 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lviv's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.73 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Lviv in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 12L in their last 15 games (0.47 PPG), while Lviv have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Lviv away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
1
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Lviv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-1 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Lviv?
Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 67%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (FC Mariupol) and 33% (Lviv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Mariupol have failed to score in 33% of games; Lviv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Mariupol's games and 50% of Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Mariupol vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Mariupol's matches and 33% of Lviv's.
Do FC Mariupol and Lviv tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lviv in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lviv edge out FC Mariupol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat FC Mariupol 0-1 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.15 xG and Lviv 1.51 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Mariupol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.92 / defence 1.71 against Lviv attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 28% | Lviv 45%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 73%, Lviv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lviv's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.87 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.