Desna 3-3 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Desna vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Mariupol make the trip to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to face Desna in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Desna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Desna have posted 4W 1D 3L at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Mariupol's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Desna's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Mariupol's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Desna lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Desna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Desna — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Mariupol — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 38% versus FC Mariupol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 50% | FC Mariupol 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.45 xG and FC Mariupol 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.825 / defence 1.265 | FC Mariupol attack 0.878 / defence 1.603. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.164. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.603 — this is suppressing Desna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Desna games / 16 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 41% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 34%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | FC Mariupol 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Desna 38% | FC Mariupol 62%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 41% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Desna 1.45 / FC Mariupol 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.825 / def 1.265 | FC Mariupol attack 0.878 / def 1.603 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Desna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Mariupol xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Desna vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs FC Mariupol?
Desna 3 - 3 FC Mariupol.
Where is Desna vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs FC Mariupol part of?
Desna vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 41% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Desna and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): Desna 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are Desna and FC Mariupol in?
Desna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Desna's attack rating (0.82) and FC Mariupol's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Mariupol's attack (0.88x) against Desna's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.92
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Desna xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
FC Mariupol xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Desna and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Desna and 1.29 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Desna have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 7W 3D 6L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol's form line: 2W 1D 13L from 16 games, 0.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Mariupol.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Desna have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.44 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Desna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.12 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 62%.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 13L in their last 16 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or FC Mariupol away?
Desna's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Desna or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Desna
1
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and FC Mariupol?
From 2 meetings on record, Desna have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Desna and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Desna 3-3 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Desna and FC Mariupol?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 38%, FC Mariupol 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Desna) and 62% (FC Mariupol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Desna's recent matches and 62% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Desna's matches and 62% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Desna and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Desna and FC Mariupol share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna and FC Mariupol finished level at 3-3 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.45 xG and FC Mariupol 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Desna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Mariupol outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.82 / defence 1.26 against FC Mariupol attack 0.88 / defence 1.60, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 41% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 34%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 50%, FC Mariupol 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Desna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.