Dnipro-1 3-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 6 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Chornomorets, Dnipro-1 have gone 7W 0D 1L this season (8 games, 2.62 PPG). They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Chornomorets. Their home PPG of 2.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 1.40 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dnipro-1 lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 38% versus Chornomorets 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 56% | Chornomorets 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 2.38 xG and Chornomorets 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.534 / defence 1.038 | Chornomorets attack 0.780 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.188. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.534 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Dnipro-1 games / 16 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 69% | Draw 18% | Chornomorets 14%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Chornomorets 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 38% | Chornomorets 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 69% | Draw 18% | Chornomorets 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 56% | xG Dnipro-1 2.38 / Chornomorets 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.534 / def 1.038 | Chornomorets attack 0.780 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chornomorets xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 3 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 69% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.78x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.67
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
3.34
0.96
Chornomorets xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
10.78
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
1%
79.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.96 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 16 games, going 11W 1D 4L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dnipro-1's home form reads 6W 0D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.06 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 games (2.12 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Chornomorets away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.57 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dnipro-1 have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 6, Chornomorets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 29%, Chornomorets 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Dnipro-1 and 86% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Chornomorets in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 57% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dnipro-1's matches and 86% of Chornomorets's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 3-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 2.38 xG and Chornomorets 0.96 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.53 / defence 1.04 against Chornomorets attack 0.78 / defence 1.40, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 69% | Draw 18% | Chornomorets 14%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 56%, Chornomorets 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.