Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karpaty at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Karpaty at Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ruh Lviv — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ruh Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Karpaty have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karpaty are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 2 for Karpaty and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Ruh Lviv 0–0 Karpaty — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus Karpaty 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 33% | Karpaty 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.956 / defence 1.256 | Karpaty attack 0.978 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.133. Karpaty bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ruh Lviv's projected output down. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karpaty's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 54 games and Karpaty's last 54.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.14 | Draw 3.66 | Karpaty 2.06. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Karpaty 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ruh Lviv 0.90 / Karpaty 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.956 / def 1.256 | Karpaty attack 0.978 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Karpaty xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 3 Karpaty.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 24% chance of winning, Karpaty a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Karpaty will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 54 games and Karpaty's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
24%
4.14
27%
3.66
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.29
1.39
Karpaty xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.39 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 13D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (21W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.07 PPG, Karpaty on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across their last 26 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Karpaty have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Karpaty (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.08 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Karpaty in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2026, when Karpaty won Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
1
Draws
3
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Karpaty have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Karpaty last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 46%, Karpaty 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 46% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Karpaty in 38%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 35% of games; Karpaty in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Karpaty matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 46% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Karpaty matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 73% of Karpaty's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 0-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Karpaty attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Karpaty 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.07 PPG, Karpaty 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.