Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Oleksandria face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Shakhtar Donetsk at KSK Nika in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 6 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Oleksandria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Oleksandria.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Oleksandria 0–2 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 45% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 45% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Oleksandria surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Shakhtar Donetsk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.82 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.868 / defence 1.095 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.250 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.209. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Oleksandria's projected output down. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack rating of 1.250, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 47 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 48.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.44 | Draw 4.11 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 40% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Oleksandria 0.82 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.868 / def 1.095 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.250 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 47 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.44
24%
4.11
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.47
1.65
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
28.40
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.65 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 22W 12D 13L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 29W 13D 5L from 47 games, 2.13 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 22 home games (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 11W 9D 2L from their last 22 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.34 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 29W 13D 5L in their last 47 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.95 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Oleksandria 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 41%, Shakhtar Donetsk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 36% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 41% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 36% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Oleksandria 0-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.82 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.25 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 45%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.