🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Avanhard plays host to Veres Rivne versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Veres Rivne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Veres Rivne's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Avanhard this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

LNZ Cherkasy arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Veres Rivne 2W, LNZ Cherkasy 1W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Veres Rivne winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 47% versus LNZ Cherkasy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 45% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 0.86 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.979 / defence 1.026 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.133 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.174. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Veres Rivne games / 48 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 49%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.04. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights