Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-0 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kolos Kovalivka at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 7L across 9 games at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this term (0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.22 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 42% versus Kolos Kovalivka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% | Kolos Kovalivka 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.816 / defence 1.372 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.952 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.196. Data: 18 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 48 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Kolos Kovalivka 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Kolos Kovalivka 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.816 / def 1.372 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.952 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Kolos Kovalivka xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4 - 0 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 19% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | Kolos Kovalivka 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kolos Kovalivka's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
19%
5.40
25%
3.94
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.34
1.56
Kolos Kovalivka xG
5.40
19%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
25.77
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.56 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 3D 12L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 0W 2D 7L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.22 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 1.00 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 7W 8D 4L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.22 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
1
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-0 Kolos Kovalivka.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67%, Kolos Kovalivka 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 33% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 33%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 33% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kolos Kovalivka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 44% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Epitsentr Dunayivtsi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Kolos Kovalivka 4-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kolos Kovalivka landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.82 / defence 1.37 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58%, Kolos Kovalivka 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.