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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kolos Kovalivka at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 7L across 9 games at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this term (0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.22 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.

Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 42% versus Kolos Kovalivka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% | Kolos Kovalivka 26%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.816 / defence 1.372 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.952 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.196. Data: 18 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 48 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Kolos Kovalivka 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Kolos Kovalivka 50%.

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