LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cherkasy Arena plays host to LNZ Cherkasy versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 6W 1D 3L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Oleksandria have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.40 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Oleksandria's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 2 for Oleksandria and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 38% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 29% | Oleksandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 xG and Oleksandria 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.988 / defence 0.911 | Oleksandria attack 0.831 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.243. Data: 49 LNZ Cherkasy games / 48 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 45% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 27%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Oleksandria 3.70. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 10% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 45% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 / Oleksandria 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.988 / def 0.911 | Oleksandria attack 0.831 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Oleksandria xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 45% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
Record (5 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 2 | Oleksandria 2W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.99) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.83x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.57
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Oleksandria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.94 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 19W 12D 17L from 48 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 14L across 48 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.62 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.25 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Oleksandria away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.46 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.33 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 33%, Oleksandria 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 42% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 42% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Oleksandria 2-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 xG and Oleksandria 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Oleksandria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Oleksandria attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 45% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 27%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 29%, Oleksandria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.44 PPG, Oleksandria 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.