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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Oleksandria host Livyi Bereh at KSK Nika in Premier League, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 June 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at KSK Nika this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Livyi Bereh haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 0.60 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Oleksandria's 30% rate and Livyi Bereh's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Oleksandria have won 2, Livyi Bereh 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (34 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (34 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Livyi Bereh 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 50% | Livyi Bereh 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.81 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.668 / defence 1.395 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.987 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.240. Oleksandria's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Oleksandria games / 30 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 17% | Draw 25% | Livyi Bereh 58%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Livyi Bereh 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Livyi Bereh (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 30% | Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS from recent games.

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