Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 home games — 0.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kryvbas KR are 1.10 PPG clear of Oleksandria in recent Premier League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Oleksandria 4W, Kryvbas KR 3W, 0D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 45% versus Kryvbas KR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | Kryvbas KR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.87 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.629 / defence 1.498 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.081 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.252. Oleksandria's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Oleksandria games / 59 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 15% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 64%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Kryvbas KR 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Oleksandria 20% | Kryvbas KR 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 15% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Oleksandria 0.87 / Kryvbas KR 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.629 / def 1.498 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.081 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Kryvbas KR xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 15% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Record (7 meetings): Oleksandria 4W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 3W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oleksandria's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.08x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
15%
6.88
22%
4.60
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.89
2.03
Kryvbas KR xG
6.88
15%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
52.25
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Oleksandria and 2.03 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 14D 21L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 25W 16D 17L from 58 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.57 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (14W 4D 10L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 11W 10D 7L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.47 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Current Season
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.64 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 39%, Kryvbas KR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Oleksandria) and 39% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 36%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 32% of games; Kryvbas KR in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Oleksandria's recent games and 39% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 30, as Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.87 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kryvbas KR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.63 / defence 1.50 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 15% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 64%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Kryvbas KR 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.43 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.