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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Final as Livyi Bereh welcome Oleksandria to Arena Livyi Bereg. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Livyi Bereh's home record at Arena Livyi Bereg: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Arena Livyi Bereg than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Oleksandria's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 0.50 PPG versus Oleksandria's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Oleksandria 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 26% versus Oleksandria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 29% | Oleksandria 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.51 xG and Oleksandria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 1.012 / defence 1.001 | Oleksandria attack 0.985 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.240. Oleksandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Livyi Bereh games / 59 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 43% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 30%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Oleksandria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Livyi Bereh 40% | Oleksandria 60%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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