Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar welcome Kryvbas KR to Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Kryvbas KR have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 1.10 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Kryvbas KR have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Obolon'-Brovar.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Obolon'-Brovar 1–2 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 30% versus Kryvbas KR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 43% | Kryvbas KR 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.839 / defence 1.239 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.961 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.172. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 47 games and Kryvbas KR's last 48.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 45%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.54 | Draw 3.72 | Kryvbas KR 2.23. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Kryvbas KR 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 / Kryvbas KR 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.839 / def 1.239 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.961 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Kryvbas KR xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 28% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.84) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 47 games and Kryvbas KR's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.72
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.44
1.40
Kryvbas KR xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.40 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 13D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.57 PPG from 47 outings (20W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 6W 9D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 24 away games (9W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.36 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 20W 14D 13L in their last 47 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.12 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Kryvbas KR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 38% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 38%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games; Kryvbas KR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 38% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR finished level at 0-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.40 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 45%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 43%, Kryvbas KR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.