FC Kharkiv 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FC Kharkiv take on Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and Polessya meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Polessya's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 2.20 for Polessya. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (from FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) — FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Polessya in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Polessya and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended FC Kharkiv 0–0 Polessya — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 32% of FC Kharkiv's games and 29% of Polessya's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 21% | Polessya 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG and Polessya 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.944 / defence 0.601 | Polessya attack 1.261 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.258. Polessya bring a tight defence (rating 0.670, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Kharkiv's projected output down. Polessya have an above-average attack rating of 1.261, which lifts their away xG to 0.95. FC Kharkiv have a tight defence (rating 0.601), which is pulling Polessya's projected output down. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 25 games and Polessya's last 55.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.52 | Draw 2.79 | Polessya 2.80. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 20% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG FC Kharkiv 0.82 / Polessya 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.944 / def 0.601 | Polessya attack 1.261 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Polessya xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 28% chance of winning, Polessya a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.26x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 25 games and Polessya's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.52
36%
2.79
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.77
0.95
Polessya xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 16.2 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.95 for Polessya, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 14W 10D 4L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Polessya's form line: 16W 6D 6L from 28 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.93 for Polessya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 13 home games (8W 3D 2L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 10W 0D 3L from their last 13 away games — 2.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.64 scored and 0.64 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya in 29%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Polessya in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Polessya in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Polessya have gone 16W 6D 6L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.08 PPG; Polessya away: 2.31 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Polessya in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between FC Kharkiv and Polessya, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Polessya have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Polessya 3-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 15% (FC Kharkiv) and 23% (Polessya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for FC Kharkiv and 46% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches; Polessya in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 23% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 46% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 38% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 85% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out FC Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat FC Kharkiv 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG and Polessya 0.95 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.94 / defence 0.60 against Polessya attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 21%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.86 PPG, Polessya 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.