FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tsentralnyi Stadion plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, FC Kharkiv have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv's record over their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dynamo Kyiv's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 2.10 for Dynamo Kyiv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Dynamo Kyiv, who have 3 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended FC Kharkiv 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 3 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 33% versus Dynamo Kyiv 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.766 / defence 0.833 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.525 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.207. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.525, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 21 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 52.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 4.67 | Draw 3.84 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.90. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Dynamo Kyiv 3 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 20% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG FC Kharkiv 0.88 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.766 / def 0.833 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.525 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dynamo Kyiv xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 21% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.52x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 21 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
21%
4.67
26%
3.84
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.41
1.53
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
5%
21.62
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.53 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 9D 4L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.79 for Dynamo Kyiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 1.80 points per game from their last 10 away games (5W 3D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.12 scored and 1.08 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into FC Kharkiv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv in 67%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 9D 4L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 12W 7D 5L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.80 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 1.80 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 20%, Dynamo Kyiv 90% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 10% (FC Kharkiv) and 90% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 20% of FC Kharkiv's games and 90% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 90% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 90% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.53 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.52 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 21%, Dynamo Kyiv 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.75 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.