LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Kharkiv travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 6 matches, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 2W 1D 3L — 1.17 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%).
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across their last 3 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 50% versus FC Kharkiv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 50% | FC Kharkiv 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.88 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.736 / defence 1.282 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.771 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.221. LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Kharkiv's projected output up. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 4 games and FC Kharkiv's last 33.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 44%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.75 | Draw 3.38 | FC Kharkiv 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 67% (last 3 home games) | FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.88 / FC Kharkiv 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.736 / def 1.282 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.771 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC Kharkiv xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 27% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 4 games and FC Kharkiv's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
27%
3.75
30%
3.38
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.08
1.21
FC Kharkiv xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.21 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.17 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for LNZ Cherkasy and 17% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 33%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 17% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.88 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.21 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.74 / defence 1.28 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 4/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 44%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, FC Kharkiv 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.