Dnipro-1 1-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Dnipro-1 welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Premier League matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Dnipro-1 have the edge — a 1.67 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 67% versus Obolon'-Brovar 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dnipro-1 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.90 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.301 / defence 0.958 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.703 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.164. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Dnipro-1 games / 3 Obolon'-Brovar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 64% | Draw 21% | Obolon'-Brovar 15%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Obolon'-Brovar 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 70% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 64% | Draw 21% | Obolon'-Brovar 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Dnipro-1 1.90 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.301 / def 0.958 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.703 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Obolon'-Brovar xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Dnipro-1 1 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 64% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.30x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.66
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.68
0.78
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
2%
45.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.78 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Dnipro-1 or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 2 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Dnipro-1.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dnipro-1 tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 67%, Obolon'-Brovar 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dnipro-1 and 33% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Dnipro-1 1-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.90 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.78 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 64% | Draw 21% | Obolon'-Brovar 15%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 33%, Obolon'-Brovar 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dnipro-1 shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.