Livyi Bereh 0-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 38%, yet in-form Livyi Bereh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Livyi Bereh welcome Kudrivka to Arena Livyi Bereg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Livyi Bereh haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Livyi Bereh have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.19 xG and Kudrivka 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kudrivka attack 0.924 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.185. Data: 0 Livyi Bereh games / 31 Kudrivka games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 34% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 38%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Kudrivka 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kudrivka at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Livyi Bereh (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 34% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.19 / Kudrivka 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kudrivka attack 0.924 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Kudrivka xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 0 Kudrivka.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 34% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kudrivka's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.45
1.26
Kudrivka xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.26 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. Livyi Bereh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Kudrivka, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 2.00 PPG, Kudrivka on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 3.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Kudrivka's attacking output running into Livyi Bereh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 100%.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Pre-Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Livyi Bereh or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka?
From 1 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Kudrivka have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Livyi Bereh 0-0 Kudrivka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Kudrivka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Livyi Bereh's games and 100% of Kudrivka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 100% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Livyi Bereh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh and Kudrivka finished level at 0-0 at Arena Livyi Bereg, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.19 xG and Kudrivka 1.26 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Livyi Bereh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kudrivka landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kudrivka attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/31 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 34% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 38%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 0%, Kudrivka 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 2.00 PPG, Kudrivka 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Livyi Bereh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kudrivka managed 0 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.