Kudrivka 1-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shakhtar Donetsk travel to Obolon Arena to take on Kudrivka in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kudrivka stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kudrivka's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Kudrivka 0–4 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 58% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.789 / defence 1.178 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.264 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.206. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack rating of 1.264, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Kudrivka's last 24 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 54.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 5.65 | Draw 4.37 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kudrivka 70% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Kudrivka 0.86 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.789 / def 1.178 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.264 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Kudrivka 1 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.79x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kudrivka's last 24 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.65
23%
4.37
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.66
1.79
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
3%
34.03
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.79 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 6D 14L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 18W 7D 1L from 26 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kudrivka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 13 home games (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 6D 0L from their last 13 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.35 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Kudrivka (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kudrivka
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 18W 7D 1L in their last 26 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.23 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 3 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Shakhtar Donetsk 4-0 Kudrivka.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kudrivka have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2026: Kudrivka 5-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 77%, Shakhtar Donetsk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Kudrivka) and 46% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Kudrivka's games and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kudrivka's matches and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kudrivka 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.