Kudrivka 1-3 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 7 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kudrivka have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Kudrivka have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Kudrivka, 1.30 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 62% versus Kolos Kovalivka 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 62% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.41 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.195 / defence 0.984 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.012 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.272. Data: 11 Kudrivka games / 41 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 33%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kudrivka at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kudrivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 86% | Kolos Kovalivka 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Kudrivka 1.41 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.195 / def 0.984 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.012 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kolos Kovalivka xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Kudrivka 1 - 3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 40% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.20x the league average against Kolos Kovalivka's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (1.01x) against Kudrivka's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.74
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.68
1.27
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.27 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kudrivka come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Kudrivka against 1.54 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kudrivka's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kudrivka are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kudrivka's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 2.33 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Kudrivka, 50% for Kolos Kovalivka — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kudrivka) and 33% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Kolos Kovalivka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Kudrivka's games and 50% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kudrivka's recent games and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Kudrivka 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.41 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 33%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 62%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.31 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.