🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Premier League appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.

Obolon'-Brovar have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi against 1.20 for Obolon'-Brovar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Trading

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% versus Obolon'-Brovar 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% | Obolon'-Brovar 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.135 / defence 1.682 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.770 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.268. Data: 11 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 41 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.08. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 83% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights