Shakhtar Donetsk 7-1 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees SK Poltava travel to Arena Lviv to take on Shakhtar Donetsk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk at Arena Lviv this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
SK Poltava — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
SK Poltava trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 36% versus SK Poltava 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 46% | SK Poltava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.38 xG and SK Poltava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.455 / defence 0.903 | SK Poltava attack 0.760 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.304. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 11 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 17% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | SK Poltava 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | SK Poltava 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 17% | SK Poltava 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.38 / SK Poltava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.455 / def 0.903 | SK Poltava attack 0.760 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SK Poltava xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava?
Shakhtar Donetsk 7 - 1 SK Poltava.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 70% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against SK Poltava's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.78
12%
8.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.27
0.90
SK Poltava xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.78
17%
Draw
8.08
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
9%
10.79
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
87.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.90 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 7W 3D 1L from 11 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 7L across 11 games — 0.55 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SK Poltava heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Poltava's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.91 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava in 64%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or SK Poltava away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.40 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or SK Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, SK Poltava in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, SK Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when SK Poltava 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, SK Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 60% for SK Poltava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; SK Poltava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play SK Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 60% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs SK Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 60% of SK Poltava's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and SK Poltava tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SK Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 7-1 hammering of SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat SK Poltava 7-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.38 xG and SK Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.46 / defence 0.90 against SK Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.50, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 17% | SK Poltava 12%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, SK Poltava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Poltava's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.