Kudrivka 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Kudrivka welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Kudrivka have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kudrivka at 1.10 PPG versus Obolon'-Brovar's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Kudrivka trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 67% versus Obolon'-Brovar 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 67% | Obolon'-Brovar 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.29 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.217 / defence 1.095 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.861 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.276. Data: 10 Kudrivka games / 40 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 37% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kudrivka at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 100% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 37% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Kudrivka 1.29 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.217 / def 1.095 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.861 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Obolon'-Brovar xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kudrivka 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 37% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kudrivka's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.41
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.49
1.20
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.20 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kudrivka come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 2D 6L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 1.17 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kudrivka's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.83 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 3 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kudrivka at 100%, Obolon'-Brovar at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Kudrivka and 50% for Obolon'-Brovar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Obolon'-Brovar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Kudrivka's games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Kudrivka's matches and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's.
Do Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.29 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 37% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 67%, Obolon'-Brovar 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.17 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.